Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4420
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4420 · BOS → LGA
departs 3:33 PM ET · arrives 5:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 54%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 23%
Thu 10/15 35%
Fri 10/16 41%
Sat 10/17 17%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±7 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
3pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.02 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.