Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4438 · LGA → YYZ
departs 5:07 PM ET · arrives 6:54 PM EDT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 29%
Fri 10/16 37%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.