Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4450
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 4450 · STL → LGA
departs 6:07 AM CT · arrives 9:47 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 14%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 8%
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.