Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4467
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 4467 · PWM → LGA
departs 11:58 AM ET · arrives 1:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Mon 10/12 30%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 29%
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 32%
Sat 10/17 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
PWM is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at PWM that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.33 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.