Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4497
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 4497 · LGA → CLE
departs 12:31 PM ET · arrives 2:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Mon 10/12 22%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 20%
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at CLE that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
CLE (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.