Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4512
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4512 · BOS → STL
departs 3:26 PM ET · arrives 5:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 53%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 31%
Thu 10/15 25%
Fri 10/16 30%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
3pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.