Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4517
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 4517 · ROC → BOS
departs 11:31 AM ET · arrives 1:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Mon 10/12 16%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↑
11am departures from ROC are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.15 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.