Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4524
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4524 · CMH → BOS
departs 12:00 PM ET · arrives 2:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 10%
Sun 10/18 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.