Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4621
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4621 · ORF → LGA
departs 11:10 AM ET · arrives 12:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 32%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
ORF is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.