Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4623
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4623 · YYZ → LGA
departs 12:48 PM EDT · arrives 2:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 37%
Thu 10/15 31%
Fri 10/16 38%
Sat 10/17 20%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±5 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.08 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.