Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4654
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4654 · PIT → LGA
departs 9:58 AM ET · arrives 11:34 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.