Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4692
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4692 · BOS → CMH
departs 1:31 PM ET · arrives 3:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
1pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.