Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4724
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4724 · LGA → BOS
departs 5:31 PM ET · arrives 6:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 53%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 30%
Thu 10/15 45%
Fri 10/16 52%
Sat 10/17 27%
Sun 10/18 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LGA that day
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.