Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4733
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4733 · YQB → JFK
departs 2:30 PM EDT · arrives 4:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave YQB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at YQB that day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
YQB (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip 0.55 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.