Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4738 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

YX 4738 · LGA → BUF

departs 9:14 AM ET · arrives 10:43 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BUF that day

↑ 9am departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4738 · LGA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?