Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4749
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4749 · LGA → RDU
departs 12:01 PM ET · arrives 1:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 28%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.