Schedule: FAA flight plans.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4780 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 8:31 AM CT (18 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Tuesday, October 13 Today

YX 4780 · ORD → BUF

departs 8:03 AM CT · arrives 10:49 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at BUF that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

BUF (destination) Gusts35 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4780 · ORD → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?