Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5601
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 5601 · CVG → BOS
departs 11:52 AM ET · arrives 2:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Mon 10/12 30%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 23%
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.