Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5611 SCHEDULED

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

YX 5611 · LGA → MSN

departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 7:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,167 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5611 · LGA → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?