Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 5615 · SDF → BOS
departs 1:21 PM ET · arrives 3:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Mon 10/12 28%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 35%
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 28%
Sat 10/17 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±1 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.