Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5617
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 5617 · LGA → MSN
departs 1:05 PM ET · arrives 2:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 28%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MSN (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.