Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5619
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 5619 · BOS → MKE
departs 4:25 PM ET · arrives 6:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 30%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
4pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
MKE (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.