YX 5621 · BOS → LGA

departs 8:05 PM ET · arrives 9:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±6 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ 8pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.05 in

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5621 · BOS → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?