Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5622
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 5622 · RIC → BOS
departs 11:36 AM ET · arrives 1:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Mon 10/12 14%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at BOS that day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.