Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5637
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 5637 · SDF → LGA
departs 2:43 PM ET · arrives 4:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 30%
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 32%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.