Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5644
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 5644 · BWI → BOS
departs 6:22 PM ET · arrives 8:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 28%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.