Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5653
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 5653 · CMH → BOS
departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 7:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Mon 10/12 35%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 38%
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 34%
Sat 10/17 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.