Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5696
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 5696 · LGA → BOS
departs 6:12 AM ET · arrives 7:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 16%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 10%
Thu 10/15 7%
Fri 10/16 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at BOS that day
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.