Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5714
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 5714 · BOS → PHL
departs 5:20 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15 25%
Fri 10/16 40%
Sat 10/17 31%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
5pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.06 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.