YX 5718 · EWR → BOS

departs 8:40 PM ET · arrives 10:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±6 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5718 · EWR → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?