Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5730
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 5730 · BOS → LGA
departs 2:00 PM ET · arrives 3:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 54%
Mon 10/12 40%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 38%
Thu 10/15 28%
Fri 10/16 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at BOS that day
↑
2pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.02 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.