Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5731
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 5731 · BOS → PIT
departs 11:45 AM ET · arrives 1:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Mon 10/12 20%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at BOS that day
↑
11am departures from BOS are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.02 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.