Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5739
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 5739 · LGA → BOS
departs 2:00 PM ET · arrives 3:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 55%
Mon 10/12 41%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 44%
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 38%
Sat 10/17 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.