Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5758
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 5758 · LGA → BOS
departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 2:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 25%
Fri 10/16 38%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.