Schedule: FAA flight plans.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5781 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 4:21 PM ET (23 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

YX 5781 · LGA → BUF

departs 3:50 PM ET · arrives 5:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at BUF that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5781 · LGA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?