Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5797
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 5797 · RIC → LGA
departs 10:23 AM ET · arrives 11:48 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
RIC is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.