Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 5823 · LGA → BOS
departs 8:01 PM ET · arrives 9:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 73%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 28%
Thu 10/15 39%
Fri 10/16 50%
Sun 10/18 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.