Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5829
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 5829 · EWR → BOS
departs 3:10 PM ET · arrives 4:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 42%
Thu 10/15 28%
Fri 10/16 44%
Sun 10/18 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±1 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.