Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5836
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 5836 · ORF → BOS
departs 11:54 AM ET · arrives 1:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Mon 10/12 24%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 28%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 25%
Sat 10/17 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at BOS that day
↑
ORF is prone to delays
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.