Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5849
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 5849 · DTW → PIT
departs 10:26 AM ET · arrives 11:41 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Mon 10/12 8%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 6%
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 7%
Sat 10/17 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DTW is busy at that time
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at DTW that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.04 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.