Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4682 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow

9E 4682 · CVG → LGA

departs 3:20 PM ET · arrives 5:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at CVG that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.42 in

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4682 · CVG → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?