Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4751 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

9E 4751 · LGA → YUL

departs 11:57 AM ET · arrives 1:22 PM EDT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from LGA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.33333 mi forecast at YUL that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YUL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4751 · LGA → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?