Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4889 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

9E 4889 · DTW → XNA

departs 4:05 PM ET · arrives 5:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at XNA that day

↑ 4pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.06 in

XNA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.92 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4889 · DTW → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?