Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5020 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

9E 5020 · STL → LGA

departs 1:00 PM CT · arrives 4:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2.16667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.57 in

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5020 · STL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?