Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5078 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

9E 5078 · DTW → FWA

departs 12:29 PM ET · arrives 1:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FWA?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at FWA that day

↑ 12pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ FWA usually runs smoothly

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.06 in

FWA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5078 · DTW → FWA

Odds over time

How late will it get to FWA?