Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5211 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

9E 5211 · DTW → ROC

departs 2:42 PM ET · arrives 4:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 2pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Arrivals into ROC at that hour are often late

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

ROC (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5211 · DTW → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?