Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5254 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

9E 5254 · BGR → LGA

departs 11:53 AM ET · arrives 1:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BGR that day

↑ 11am departures from BGR are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BGR (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.41 in

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5254 · BGR → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?