Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5497 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

9E 5497 · MDT → DTW

departs 5:08 PM ET · arrives 6:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from MDT are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MDT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

DTW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5497 · MDT → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?