Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1121 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 1121 · ORD → AUS

departs 8:05 AM CT · arrives 10:52 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.25 in

AUS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1121 · ORD → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?