Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1233 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 1233 · ORD → MCO

departs 2:53 PM CT · arrives 6:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.25 in

MCO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1233 · ORD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?